BMBF DIPOL transformation pathways

How will climate protection paths develop in Germany and Europe in the coming decades? This is what the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, RWI – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung e. V. and adelphi have been investigating within the framework of the BMBF-funded DIPOL project from 2018 to 2022. adelphi conceived the co-design process with relevant stakeholders from business, civil society and science.

The most important scientific instruments are:

• model-based scenario analyses that consistently quantify mitigation scenarios in line with the global climate targets of the Paris Agreement and the German and European climate targets, and
• household micro-simulations and panel data analyses at household level for selected regions in Germany that determine the distributional implications of the climate protection pathways.

The co-design process includes the societal and political discourse on how to realise the required transformation and what opportunities and barriers exist in this regard.

A key outcome of this specific perspective was to develop a set of "scenario narratives" that incorporate the perspectives of stakeholders in the national and EU context and are aligned with the Paris Agreement. In the course of the co-design process with the stakeholders, five different transformation pathways were developed in line with the German and European climate goals, structured along the three key transformation dimensions of "technological availability", "policy coordination" and "behavioural change".